Tesouro IPCA+ Drives Record for Tesouro Direto in June

Tesouro Direto Has Its Best Month in History

Tesouro Direto ended June with net sales of R$ 10.1 billion, the highest result since the program's inception. The number reflects R$ 14.7 billion in gross applications against R$ 4.6 billion in redemptions. The star of the month has a name: Tesouro IPCA+.

The inflation-linked securities totaled R$ 4 billion in sales, more than double the amount recorded in May. As a result, the IPCA+ now represents 30.8% of total purchases, surpassing Tesouro Selic, which accounted for 28.2%. Fixed-rate securities made up 15.3% of the volume.

For those following the fixed income market in Brazil, this shift is significant. Tesouro Selic had led investor preferences almost uninterruptedly for the past few years. Losing the lead to IPCA+ signals a behavioral change that deserves attention.

Why IPCA+ Stole the Spotlight

The answer lies in the rates. Tesouro IPCA+ 2032, one of the most traded papers in June, offered a return of over 8% per year above the inflation measured by IPCA. To put this in perspective, the historical average for this type of security hovers between 5% and 6% per year in real terms.

Rates at this level are rare. The last time investors had access to such high returns on inflation-indexed securities was during the fiscal confidence crisis of 2015 and 2016. Those who bought at that time and held until maturity achieved significant returns, well above any alternative in fixed income.

The current scenario combines two factors that fuel demand: still high nominal interest rates, with Selic at a restrictive level, and fiscal uncertainty that pressures long-term spreads. For investors, the reasoning is straightforward. If inflation rises, the security provides protection. If rates fall with a potential fiscal improvement, the price of the paper rises in the secondary market, generating capital gains.

As we detailed in our analysis of the trajectory of Selic, monetary policy remains a central variable for those allocating in fixed income. The current level of real interest rates makes IPCA+ particularly attractive for longer horizons.

Investor Profile is Changing

The data from June reveals more than just an appetite for yield. It shows a change in the profile of those investing in Tesouro Direto.

First, the volume of new registrations: 261,877 people registered on the platform throughout the month. Of these, nearly 100,000 became active investors, meaning they effectively purchased securities. This data suggests that fixed income is attracting a new audience, possibly motivated by historically high rates.

Second, the size of the transactions. More than half of the transactions (50.7%) involved less than R$ 1,000. This confirms that Tesouro Direto continues to fulfill its role of democratizing access to public securities, something that smaller investors can take advantage of with accessible contributions.

Third, and perhaps most relevant, the preferred maturity range has changed. Securities maturing between five and ten years jumped from 34.4% of issuances in May to 45.7% in June. Investors are willing to lock in high rates for longer, betting that the current scenario of real interest rates will not sustain indefinitely.

Stock Grows 45% in Twelve Months

The increase in applications led the total stock of Tesouro Direto to R$ 262.5 billion in June, a rise of 4.6% compared to R$ 251 billion in May. Year-on-year, the jump is 45.5%, up from R$ 180.4 billion recorded in June 2025.

The nearly 46% growth over twelve months reflects both the influx of new resources and the appreciation of the securities in the portfolio. When future rates decline, even marginally, the stock benefits from the market valuation of long-term papers.

The pace of expansion also indicates that Tesouro Direto is gaining share within the investment universe of Brazilians. With savings accounts offering increasingly lower real returns and DI funds charging management fees that erode part of the gain, public securities purchased directly have become the most cost-efficient alternative for individual investors.

What the Record Means in Practice

The record in June is not just a pretty number in a report. It signals that a growing portion of Brazilians is migrating to fixed income instruments with a better risk-return relationship, and doing so in a more sophisticated manner.

The preference for IPCA+ over Selic shows that the average investor is looking beyond the short term. Those buying IPCA+ maturing in 2032 accept volatility along the way in exchange for a real yield locked in for years. This stance was typical of institutional investors and is now becoming popular among individuals.

The risk, of course, exists. If Selic rises beyond expectations or if the fiscal situation deteriorates, the prices of these securities will fall in the short term. Those needing to sell before maturity may incur losses. But for those with an investment horizon aligned with the maturity of the paper, the current rates offer a safety cushion that is hard to find in other assets.

The macroeconomic context, with high interest rates and fiscal uncertainty, has created a window of opportunity in fixed income that the market has not seen in nearly a decade. The data from June shows that investors have recognized this.

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