web3: Foreign Media Reports Rare Divergence Between Software Stocks and Bitcoin Trends

CoinWorld reports:

Foreign media reports that software stocks and Bitcoin have generally fluctuated in the same direction for years, but this relationship began to loosen after May this year. The ETF tracking the U.S. software sector—iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV)—has recently shown significant strength, while Bitcoin remains in a deep retracement range this year, leading to a rare divergence in their relative performance.

IGV Shows Significant Outperformance This Year

The report mentions that IGV is currently down only about 1% in 2026, while Bitcoin has seen a decline of about 29% during the same period. Calculating from the April low, IGV has rebounded about 40% and is nearing historical highs; in contrast, Bitcoin is still about 50% lower than its historical peak.

The ratio of IGV to Bitcoin has risen to about 0.0016, reaching a one-year high. This indicates that the recovery speed of software stock assets is significantly faster than that of Bitcoin during the same time period.

Short-Term Correlation Has Turned Negative

The article points out that the rolling 20-day correlation between the two has turned negative since May, marking the first occurrence of this since May 2024. For the market, this change indicates that investors no longer view Bitcoin as a high-risk tech asset that fluctuates in sync with software stocks.

Previously, the software sector had experienced a decline of about 40% after reaching a peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, and Bitcoin was also pressured during that sell-off. The report suggests that this reflects how the market has often priced Bitcoin within a risk asset framework similar to that of software stocks.

Historical Instances of Bitcoin Catching Up

Foreign media recalls that similar phases of negative correlation have occurred before. During the Bitcoin bear market in 2018, the pandemic shock in 2020, and the crackdown on Bitcoin mining in China in 2021, there were instances of Bitcoin briefly decoupling from related risk assets.

However, in these previous phases, the subsequent outcome was mostly Bitcoin catching up again, and the correlation turning positive once more. This means that historical experience does not support the idea of this divergence continuing in the long term.

Will There Be Long-Term Decoupling This Time?

However, the article argues that the more pressing question now is not the divergence itself, but whether this divergence will continue. If software stocks continue to benefit from AI themes and the recovery of growth stocks, while crypto assets remain dragged down by their own cycles, then the pricing logic of the two asset classes may further diverge.

The market's next focus will be whether Bitcoin can complete a catch-up like in previous instances, or if a more lasting separation in trends between software stocks and digital assets begins to form.

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