Trader Taiki Maeda: The Market Has Entered a Reasonable Allocation Window, These 3 Sectors Are About to Surge

Source: Taiki Maeda

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Featured: Taiki Maeda, crypto trader and YouTube content creator

Original Title: Crypto is Bottoming. We're About to Go Much Higher.

Broadcast Date: July 15, 2026

Disclosure: The author publicly discloses holding long positions in ZEC, HYPE, and LIT in the video, using the Variational referral code, and operating a paid Discord community. This article faithfully presents his personal views and does not constitute investment advice.

Key Takeaways

Taiki Maeda is a trader who continuously produces crypto research content on YouTube, having repeatedly preached about the Hyperliquid ecosystem over the past two years. In this video, he did something many are afraid to do: openly admitting that he was hurt by Zcash last month, selling out his entire position near the bottom during the panic over the Orchard pool vulnerability in early June, going to Japan for his honeymoon, and buying back after returning. Even more counterintuitive, he has been continuously selling Bitcoin to increase his position in Zcash.

His core logic is divided into three lines. First, the market has entered a bottoming process, with the real frenzy peak expected in July to August 2025 (BTC $125K, ETH $5K). The new high of $126K in October is "weak" and did not trigger an altcoin season, thus not counting as a true cycle peak. Second, the next growth engine for perpetual contract DEX tokens (HYPE, LIT) comes from the adoption of RWA perpetual contracts and traditional financial users, rather than crypto-native players cutting each other. Third, Saylor's continuous selling of BTC to fill STRK preferred stock dividends, combined with the threat of quantum computing and the inaction of Bitcoin developers, makes it "increasingly difficult to wholeheartedly support Bitcoin." The Ironwood upgrade for Zcash (launching on July 28) will achieve quantum safety and eliminate vulnerabilities through formal verification. If the ZEC/BTC exchange rate breaks from the current 0.8% to 1%, it will trigger a narrative-level reflexive cycle.

Highlights of Insights

About Market Cycles

"The new high of $126K in October doesn't count; it went up and immediately fell back down, and it didn't trigger an altcoin season at all. The real frenzy is in July and August."

"If the real top is in July, then we have already experienced a whole year of bear market. Those who should leave have already left."

"I no longer compete with the four-year cycle. My advantage is not in short-term price predictions, but in establishing beliefs about specific sectors over a longer time horizon."

About Perpetual Contract DEX

"The next wave of growth for perpetual contract DEX will not come from people within the crypto circle buying tokens, but from traditional finance and retail using perpetual contracts to replace options for betting."

"Most altcoins will go to zero. Only focusing on crypto perpetual DEX is just picking up scraps in a shrinking pool. I want to bet on projects competing for market share in RWA perpetuals."

"You don't need to bet on just one. You can hold both HYPE and LIT simultaneously and gain convex returns from future airdrops through Variational mining."

About Zcash

"If Zcash can recover from this crash, it becomes an anti-fragile asset. Every time it should have died but didn't, the probability of it dying in the future decreases."

"I rushed in in April, rushed in again in May, and then sold out at the bottom. Then it started to rise without me. Honestly, it was quite painful."

"Zcash is currently less than 1% of Bitcoin's market cap. If this ratio breaks 1%, the ZEC price will exceed $700, resonating both technically and narratively."

About Saylor and Bitcoin

"Saylor makes it harder to support Bitcoin than it was two years ago, four years ago, or six years ago. This isn't a problem with Bitcoin itself, but Saylor is too big a part of the narrative."

"The quantum threat is real. Bitcoin developers lack urgency about this, which makes it impossible for me to put all my wealth into Bitcoin anymore."

"Zcash and Bitcoin can be the gold and silver of the crypto world: there are trade-offs, but it's worth holding both simultaneously."

1. Market Cycle: The Peak Was Last July, Not in October

Many people focus on the moment last October when BTC reached a new high of $126K, thinking that was the cycle peak. But Taiki does not see it that way. Technically, it did reach a new high, but that new high was not exuberant at all. It went up and then immediately fell back down, without triggering an altcoin season; aside from a few coins moving, the overall market showed no signs of frenzy. He describes that as a "weak" new high.

The real frenzy actually occurred in July and August. At that time, BTC first touched $125K, and ETH surged to $5,000. People were rushing to buy Bitmine, believing Bitmine was the future of finance. Tom Lee was calling for buys, and the DAT frenzy (whether SDR or Bitmine) marked the peak of sentiment. It later proved that the future of finance was not that simple.

From this perspective, if the real frenzy peak was in July, then we have already gone through a whole year of bear market. Those who should leave have basically left, and the remaining fraud in the market is not as much. Even if you disagree with his judgment and believe Q4 will see new lows, he still thinks it's at least time to start slowly building positions. The cycle bottom last year started when BTC fell to $20K in June (after the 3AC collapse); although there were lower prices later, those who positioned their assets well during that window earned well over the next 12 to 18 months.

He admits that he no longer competes with the four-year cycle and does not feel he has any advantage in short-term price predictions. His perceived "advantage" is a longer time horizon and the ability to establish beliefs about specific sectors, narratives, and project fundamentals. From this perspective, starting to slowly allocate now is reasonable.

Moreover, there is a self-fulfilling factor: everyone is waiting for the Q4 bottom, preparing to buy in Q4. If the market bottoms in Q3, those waiting will only buy at higher prices. Even if Q3 does not rise, with so much capital queuing for Q4, how much downward space can there be? Positioning in advance may be wiser than waiting until Q4 to act.

2. Perpetual Contract DEX: The Real Growth Engine Lies in RWA Perpetuals

Taiki has been talking about Hyperliquid for over two years, continuously urging people to mine. Lighter is a more recent position. These two are among the few tokens that have reached new highs while the broader crypto market has been weak, completely decoupled from the movements of BTC and ETH.

On the surface, one might say this is due to strong buybacks. Hyperliquid has repurchased about 3.4% of its circulating supply since the beginning of the year, while Lighter has repurchased about 6.3%. Hyperliquid's market share relative to centralized exchanges is increasing, and Robinhood's partnership with Lighter is also a positive factor. However, Taiki believes these are just surface stories.

If one were to be more pessimistic, one could say that Hyperliquid's market is saturated, and Lighter's collaboration with Robinhood is merely a catalyst-level pulse. But to truly establish a bullish logic for a perpetual contract DEX, one needs to look further.

A structural problem in the current crypto market is that most altcoins lack fundamentals and can only rise when BTC and ETH rise. However, perpetual contract DEXs are different. They have real fee income and buyback mechanisms. More critically, Taiki believes the true growth of perpetual contract DEX tokens comes from two directions: the adoption by traditional finance and retail, and the growth of RWA perpetual contracts.

He has a strong judgment: most crypto altcoins will go to zero. Therefore, only focusing on crypto perpetual DEX is merely picking up scraps in a shrinking pool. He is more optimistic about RWA perpetuals, such as perpetual contracts for gold, crude oil, and stock indices. These varieties are currently small in scale but should far exceed the volume of crypto perpetuals in 6 to 12 months.

"The next wave of growth for perpetual contract DEX will not come from people within the crypto circle buying tokens, but from traditional finance and retail using perpetual contracts to replace options for betting." In the crypto circle, this logic is too obvious; tokens have already risen a lot, and it feels late. But the next wave of buyers is not people from the crypto circle at all.

Jez's theory of perpetual contracts has also influenced his judgment: perpetual contracts, as a delta leverage tool, are simpler and more useful than options. He expects perpetual contracts to continue to capture market share from options. This is not a complex judgment; it’s more like "what should happen will eventually happen," and people in the crypto circle have a cognitive advantage in this regard.

3. Hyperliquid, Lighter, and Variational: Position Allocation

Taiki holds three positions related to perpetual contract DEX, each with different strategies.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is his core position. He built this position months ago, waiting for a pullback to add more, but when that didn’t happen, he bought back directly. The core indicator he is optimistic about is the continuous growth of the HIP-3 RWA perpetual contract positions. As long as this number keeps rising, he will continue to be bullish on HYPE, seeing no reason to stop.

Lighter (LIT) is a more recent position. He was thinking about LIT during his honeymoon to the extent that he felt it was his subconscious telling him something, leading him to buy at market price. The logic behind LIT is the distribution channel advantage brought by the partnership with Robinhood, which will be a huge leverage when traditional financial users adopt perpetual contracts.

Variational is his main mining platform. He has done almost all his trading on Variational over the past year. This platform currently has about $120 to $130 million in open interest (OI), with about 25% coming from the TradFi market, a ratio that makes him very optimistic. The points project is expected to end in Q3, so there are still a few months of mining window.

He made an interesting estimate: if Variational airdrops 25% of its tokens, launching at a $1 billion valuation, it would correspond to about $27 per point. He wouldn’t be surprised if the FDV launches at $20 to $30 billion, depending on the performance of HYPE and LIT.

He also mentioned a "Texas hedge" strategy: not only going long on HYPE but also gaining exposure to future perpetual contract DEX tokens through Variational mining. For example, while shorting ETH, he chooses to do so on Variational rather than on Hyperliquid or Lighter. Losing doesn’t matter because the airdrop points will compensate; winning is even better, and there will be more points. This is the beauty of airdrop mining: setting up convex returns for your future self.

Regarding SUI, he is not optimistic about the token itself, so he shorted SUI on Variational to hedge his spot position. If SUI rises, his spot position is likely to rise as well; if the market falls, SUI will also fall. This is a form of combined hedging.

He opposes the common "tribalism" mentality in the crypto space: trading only on Hyperliquid if you have HYPE. He believes one can hold multiple tokens simultaneously and achieve a more robust exposure through a combination of configurations.

On the competition front for Variational, he mentioned that Ostium also has incentive projects, but its scale is far less than that of Variational. Ostium is still in the expansion phase but does not pose a threat in the short term.

4. Zcash Loss Review: From Collapse to Rebuy

Zcash is the most conflicted position for Taiki. In the last video, he just talked about the painful experience of being cut by Zcash, and in this episode, he admits he bought back in.

The story goes: In early June, news broke that the Orchard pool (Zcash's shielded pool) might have an infinite minting vulnerability. The price of ZEC plummeted directly by 60%. Taiki sold his entire position near the bottom. His reasoning was straightforward: he was about to go on a honeymoon and didn’t want to hold a high-risk position in such a state; he wanted to eliminate the pain first. He even executed a tax loss harvesting, joking that it was "the ultimate self-comfort."

What he was truly worried about was that this FUD would completely destroy market confidence in Zcash. Like BTC, Zcash has no cash flow; its value comes from whether people consider it a store of value. If confidence collapses, it may never return. The vulnerability itself is secondary.

But he gave himself time to observe and then made a key judgment: if Zcash can recover from this crash, it becomes a form of anti-fragile asset. Every time it should have died but didn’t, the probability of it dying in the future decreases, which is exactly the historical logic of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is strong because there have been countless reasons for it to die in the past, but it didn’t.

Using Munger's contrarian thinking: this crash could very well be a massive shakeout, clearing the way for a subsequent surge. If the price can recover, it proves that this asset has resilience and is worth buying back in.

He said he rushed in in April, rushed in again in May, and then sold his entire position at the bottom. Now it has risen back, without him benefiting from it. He uses the term "goldfish memory" to describe the mindset needed in trading: let the past be the past, and the question to focus on is "Will this asset recover? If it does, how far can it go?"

He admits that he is not psychologically mature, but feels he has made progress compared to three or four years ago. Back then, he probably couldn’t have bought back the same asset after selling at a loss.

5. Ironwood Upgrade: Quantum Security and Formal Verification

The next key catalyst for Zcash is the Ironwood shielded pool upgrade launched on July 28.

Ironwood brings two core improvements. First, quantum security. Second, formal verification to eliminate all undetectable counterfeit coin vulnerabilities in the future. Zcash founder Zooko also used Anthropic's model to audit the protocol.

He summarized the current situation using AI: Is there a vulnerability in the Orchard pool? Yes. Has it been exploited? Unknown. Is there public evidence of exploitation? No. Can Ironwood fix the vulnerability? Expected to. Can it guarantee that Ironwood has no undiscovered vulnerabilities? No. This is the inherent trade-off of privacy protocols: you cannot fully confirm whether it has been exploited.

However, the Ironwood upgrade will essentially prove that the Orchard pool has not been actually exploited. Vitalik has also written articles on formal verification, and Taiki believes this will become standard for every crypto project in the future.

From a trading and narrative perspective, a complete price recovery could likely kick off a narrative revival and a reflexivity cycle. This is what he wants to position for in advance.

6. Saylor's Dilemma: Why Bitcoin is "Harder to Support"

Saylor (Michael Saylor) has been selling Bitcoin to fund dividends for STRK (Strategy Preferred Stock Strife) and increase cash reserves. Taiki believes Saylor may be a net seller of BTC for the foreseeable future.

For the past six years, Saylor has been a continuous net buyer of BTC. Now he is starting to sell slowly every month or every two months; how will BTC react? No one knows. Taiki is uncertain whether BTC will be dragged down by Saylor's selling behavior, but he is also unwilling to bet that it won’t.

"Saylor has made it harder to support Bitcoin than it was two years ago, four years ago, or six years ago. This is not a problem with Bitcoin itself, but Saylor is too big a part of the narrative." If Bitcoin wins, Saylor will become the richest person on Earth, and Taiki says he is uncertain about how he feels about this.

The price of STRK has already recovered (over $70), but the holding experience is very poor. He even thinks Saylor should just get rid of this stock, although he is not sure what Saylor is thinking.

Regarding quantum threats, his friend Evan recently pointed out that Bitcoin faces quantum computing threats, and Bitcoin developers lack a sense of urgency about this, which makes him seriously concerned about going all-in on Bitcoin again. Taiki agrees. Two years ago, four years ago, he would have gone all-in on BTC without hesitation, and he indeed did. But the quantum threat is an unknown variable, and he lacks confidence in the Bitcoin community's ability to address this issue.

From Zcash's perspective, you don’t need to bet that people will sell BTC to buy ZEC. A more reasonable assumption is: someone wanting to allocate $100,000 to the crypto market might have bought 100% BTC two years ago, but now might consider 90% BTC + 10% ZEC. If Zcash surges due to quantum security, it could force Bitcoin developers to take the quantum issue more seriously. The two can coexist beneficially.

"Zcash and Bitcoin can be the gold and silver of the crypto world: there are trade-offs, but it’s worth holding both."

7. ZEC/BTC Exchange Rate: Key Threshold for Reflexivity Cycle

The Zcash metric Taiki values most is the ZEC/BTC exchange rate, while the ZEC/USD price is secondary.

Zcash and Bitcoin have the exact same supply schedule: halving every four years, with a total supply of 21 million. Currently, the ZEC/BTC exchange rate is about 0.8%. The previous resistance level is in the range of ZEC $650 to $700, corresponding to an exchange rate of about 1%.

If the ZEC/BTC exchange rate breaks 1%, it will trigger two things simultaneously: ZEC will break its multi-year high (technical signal), and the narrative of "Zcash's market cap exceeding BTC by 1%" will become a topic (narrative signal). The resonance of the two could lead to larger capital inflows.

He said he has been selling BTC to buy ZEC for the past two months. He did some last month and again this month. He is no longer continuing to sell, and his position is now comfortable. His bet is clear: the market will increasingly care about privacy, quantum, and Saylor's three narratives, regardless of whether Zcash is better than Bitcoin.

Soros's reflexivity theory applies here: fundamentals drive price increases, price increases change people's perceptions of the asset, and perception changes in turn improve fundamentals (more developers, more users, more liquidity), further driving up prices. Zcash's reflexivity cycle needs price movement to kick off.

He added a point: If you are someone mocking him in the comments for "selling at the bottom," watching ZEC rise back from the bottom and continue to rise, at some point, it will be hard for you to continue denying what is happening. Zcash has had many reasons to go to zero: it started rising before BTC peaked, surged again in Q1 and Q2, then plummeted due to vulnerabilities, and is now recovering. If all these negative shocks haven’t killed this asset, then what will?

8. Position Management and Final Reflection

Taiki's current position ranking: overweight in Zcash, second in HYPE, third in LIT, plus cash and Variational mining earnings.

He keeps cash positions for two reasons. First is psychological hedging: last month, his ZEC position was too heavy, especially before the honeymoon, which led to emotional decision-making. Reducing the ZEC position while holding cash is an attempt to hedge against future mistakes. Second is opportunity reserve: if there is a new pullback or new narrative, he has ammunition to use.

Regarding the timing of purchases: he added some Zcash last week. The HYPE position was built months ago. LIT was bought at market price during the honeymoon. The BTC position is currently at a loss, but "it is what it is." The new ZEC position is already in profit, but combined with previous losses, the overall position is still underwater. He believes that if the Zcash thesis is correct, previous losses will be compensated by future gains.

He admits that making mistakes is as unavoidable as "seeing oneself as a Japanese person in the mirror." But the only thing to do is to move forward and take the best step.

His final stance: bullish on perpetual contract DEX tokens (HYPE, LIT), continue mining more perpetual contract DEX tokens (Variational), and bullish on Zcash considering its unique positioning and narrative premium over Bitcoin. Good altcoins have already bottomed. The market is forward-looking. You have to believe in something.