OPEC: Venezuela Discusses Exit with the USA, 5 Months After the Emirates

Second departure in the works, four months after the first. Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC since its inception in 1960, is discussing a potential exit from the oil cartel with U.S. officials. Nothing is finalized. Bloomberg, which revealed the information on August 27 from anonymous sources, reiterates this clearly. No final decision has been made. Key points of this article: * Venezuela has discussed with U.S. officials a potential exit from OPEC, with no final decision made, which could mark a historic break for the organization. * Negotiations are ongoing between Washington and Caracas regarding approximately 17 oil fields, involving a complex geopolitical dimension with significant energy and economic implications. According to Bloomberg, Caracas has mentioned the idea of a withdrawal to officials from the Trump administration, with no commitments from either side. The White House has referred questions to the Department of Energy. The Venezuelan Ministry of Oil has not responded. Status quo. The United Arab Emirates paved the way by leaving the organization on May 1, 2026, after 59 years of membership. If Caracas follows suit, OPEC would lose two founding or historical members in less than half a year, a pace it has not experienced since its creation. The symbol would weigh more heavily than the barrels for an organization that derives much of its deterrent strength from its displayed unity. However, the matter remains almost anecdotal. Venezuela has not adhered to its quotas for years, as its production collapsed long before the question of departure arose. Washington is already negotiating 17 Venezuelan oil fields. However, Reuters mentions a list of about 17 oil fields under negotiation between Washington and Caracas, spread between the virgin deposits of the Orinoco belt and the mature areas of Lake Maracaibo. Some of these fields are currently operated under contract by a Chinese company, a detail that adds a geopolitical flavor to the issue that goes beyond just energy concerns. The proposed arrangement would rely on long-term leases, followed by auctions to allocate the deposits among American producers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is expected to visit Caracas in the week following the publication of the investigation. This renewed proximity is not a given. In January, just days after the capture of Nicolás Maduro by American forces, Delcy Rodríguez was installed as interim president. The former vice president of the Chavista regime is overseeing the transition. When questioned at the time, Donald Trump claimed to prefer seeing Venezuela remain in OPEC, while admitting he did not know if this choice truly served American interests. Seven months later, the tone has changed. Indeed, some U.S. officials are now discussing an energy partnership to, in their own words reported by Bloomberg, establish a joint oil power capable of weakening the cartel's position. A complete turnaround, in sum, which shows how much Washington's official line on this issue remains fluid. More Venezuelan crude on the global market, not a shock for Bitcoin. The bridge to crypto markets can be summed up in one phrase: more oil available on the global market in five to ten years, if American investments in oil fields materialize, means less inflationary pressure imported by energy. This is not neutral for Bitcoin, regularly associated with the bet on the depreciation of fiat currencies, the famous << debasement trade >> across the Atlantic, alongside gold. But the equation is not mechanical. A long-term bearish oil shock eases pressure on central banks, which could just as easily delay rate cuts as accelerate a cycle more favorable to risky assets. Nothing is decided in the immediate term, anyway. Venezuelan crude production, which has risen above one million barrels per day in recent months after years of collapse, weighs little against the more than 100 million barrels consumed daily in the global oil market. Bitcoin, Petro, mining: the long crypto story of Venezuela. Venezuela did not wait for this oil deal to cross paths with cryptocurrencies. Under Maduro, the regime launched the Petro, a state-backed digital currency pegged to the country's oil reserves and intended to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan crude. The bet has ultimately failed. Caracas has ended up acknowledging the programmed death of the Petro after years of commercial failure. The country has also seen the rise of Bitcoin mining farms, supported by subsidized electricity from oil rents, before power cuts and repression brought miners to a halt. And during the political crisis that preceded Maduro's capture, part of the opposition had made Bitcoin its plan B against the hyperinflation of the bolivar. The oil deal currently negotiated with Washington is therefore not taking place in a crypto desert. It even runs counter to this history. If American investments in oil fields end up stabilizing the economy and the local currency, they could paradoxically reduce Venezuela's appetite for Bitcoin as a refuge against inflation, the very function that has made crypto successful there in recent years.

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