FOMC Expectations Summary: Rate Cut May Have to Wait Until October, High Bar for Further Cuts

BlockBeats News, March 18th, the market generally believes that the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at tomorrow's 2 p.m. rate decision meeting is close to zero, and there will be no rate cut in the near future. Futures prices indicate that policymakers will not consider easing policies until at least September, more likely until October, and even then, there will only be one rate cut this year. CNBC summarized the mainstream expectations for this FOMC meeting as follows:

Russell Investments' Senior Investment Strategist stated: "The March meeting is almost certain to keep rates unchanged. However, any clues Chair Powell might reveal about future rate paths will be crucial. Overall, the U.S. economy remains robust. But this also means that the threshold for further rate cuts in the U.S. may be quite high."

A Fed watcher at Bank of America noted in a report: "As the market has almost entirely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in April, Powell's ability to guide the market depends on the extent to which the market believes his remarks represent the committee's consensus rather than his personal views. Even leaving aside this limiting factor, Powell's job remains challenging."

Former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson told CNBC that he expects the committee's post-meeting statement to be "cautious" in its description of inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and the expected policy path.