US M2 Reaches $23.218 Trillion in July, Renewing Bitcoin Correlation Debate

In July, the seasonally adjusted M2 money supply in the United States reached a record high of $23.218 trillion, but interpretations of its correlation with Bitcoin prices are mixed. According to the Federal Reserve's H.6 statistics, M2 increased by $102.8 billion from June and is up approximately 5.4% compared to July 2025. M2 includes cash, demand deposits, and savings deposits, and does not automatically explain the direction of specific asset prices. In the crypto market, the increase in M2 is interpreted as a signal of liquidity easing, and the bullish argument for Bitcoin has resurfaced on social media. However, institutional analysis suggests that it is difficult to definitively determine Bitcoin's direction based solely on the expansion of M2. Fidelity pointed out that the relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity has recently become unstable, and BIT analyzed that this relationship broke down after mid-2025. While it is difficult to conclude that an increase in M2 will lead to a rise in Bitcoin, it has been confirmed that interpretations of the relationship between the July M2 increase and Bitcoin differ. The next H.6 statistics are scheduled to be released on September 22, 2026.

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