September Rate Hike Probability Drops to 35.7%

The probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) benchmark interest rate for September has been calculated at 35.7%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at 64.3%, indicating that the market is leaning more towards the possibility of a freeze. According to the CME FedWatch on the 28th, the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeping the benchmark rate unchanged during the meeting on September 15-16 is 64.3%, while the probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase is 35.7%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at 11 PM on the 28th. The market is paying close attention to Warsh's remarks for any policy signals related to the September meeting. The fact that the probability of keeping rates unchanged exceeds that of an increase shows that the market places a higher likelihood on a freeze rather than additional tightening. However, the probability of an increase remaining in the 30% range indicates that uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy direction still exists. The cryptocurrency market is also reflecting the atmosphere of confirming changes in U.S. rate expectations and preferences for risk assets. The CME FedWatch figures are not price forecasts or official announcements from the Fed, and actual rate decisions are made by the Fed based on a comprehensive assessment of inflation, employment, and financial conditions.

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