Sam Altman New Year Outlook: AI Revolution Underway, First Wave of AI Agents Expected to Join Labor Market This Year

By: blockbeats|2025/01/06 15:45:03
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Original Author: Sam Altman
Original Translation: DeepTech TechFlow

Just over a month has passed since ChatGPT's second birthday, and now we have entered a new era of models capable of complex reasoning. The new year always prompts reflection, and I want to take this opportunity to share some personal insights about this journey and some of the gains along the way.

As we get closer to AGI, now is a crucial moment to look back on the progress our company has made. There is still much unknown to explore, many questions to answer, and everything is still in its early stages. But compared to the beginning, we have learned a lot.

We founded OpenAI about nine years ago because we believed AGI was possible and had the potential to be the most impactful technology in human history. We wanted to find a way to build AGI and ensure that it could benefit humanity widely; at the same time, we also longed to write our own chapter in history. Our goals were grand, and we firmly believed that this work could give back to society in an equally grand way.

At that time, almost no one cared about AGI. If anyone paid attention, most thought we could not succeed.

By 2022, OpenAI was still a low-key research lab developing a project temporarily called "Chat With GPT-3.5" (our research far outpaced our naming skills, indeed). We noticed that developers loved the experience of conversing with the model through the API's playground feature. So, we thought that building a demo around this conversational experience would not only showcase the future possibilities to people but also help us improve the model's performance and safety.

In the end, we decided to name it ChatGPT and officially launched it on November 30, 2022.

We always vaguely knew that someday the AI revolution would come, but we did not know what that moment would look like. To our surprise, this release became that turning point.

The launch of ChatGPT sparked an unprecedented surge of growth—both within our company, across the industry, and globally. We finally saw the enormous potential of AI and could foresee that there are more breakthroughs to come in the future.

This road has not been smooth, and making the right choices has never been easy.

Over the past two years, we have built an entire company almost from scratch around this new technology. Faced with such a challenge, the only way to learn is to figure it out in practice. When the technology itself is brand new, no one can tell you exactly how to do it.

Building a company at such a rapid pace, with almost no existing experience to draw upon, inevitably leads to chaos. We often take two steps forward, one step back (sometimes even one step forward, two steps back). While mistakes are continuously corrected along the way, blazing a trail in an entirely new field leaves almost no manual or clear direction to follow. Rapidly advancing in uncharted territory is an exciting experience, but for all involved, it is also a tremendous source of pressure. Conflicts and misunderstandings are unavoidable.

These years have been the most fulfilling, fascinating, and rewarding of my life, but also the most exhausting and stressful. Especially the past two years could even be described as the most challenging period, yet my deepest feeling is one of gratitude. I know that one day, when I am retired and sitting on a farm watching plants grow, feeling somewhat bored, I will reminisce about the time I had the opportunity to realize my childhood dreams, and how fortunate that was. I try to remind myself of this every Friday, even if by early afternoon, seven things have already gone wrong.

On a certain Friday about a year ago, what caught me off guard was being suddenly fired during a video call, with absolutely no warning. Right after we hung up, the board immediately released a blog post announcing the news. I was in a hotel room in Las Vegas at the time, and the feeling was almost indescribable, like a beautiful dream turning into a nightmare.

Being publicly fired without any warning led to hours of chaos and even more days filled with uncertainty. The strangest part was the state of "information chaos." None of us could get a clear answer about what had happened or why.

In my view, this entire event was a governance failure, even though all involved had good intentions, including myself. Looking back, I certainly wish I had handled things differently at the time. I am also willing to believe that the me of today is more mature and thoughtful than a year ago.

This event made me realize that a board needs diverse perspectives and rich experiences to deal with complex challenges. Good governance must be built on a deep foundation of trust and reputation. I am grateful that many have worked together to establish a stronger governance system for OpenAI, enabling us to continue our mission of pursuing AGI for the benefit of all humanity.

My biggest insight over this year is that I have too much to be grateful for and too many people to thank: thanks to all colleagues at OpenAI who chose to dedicate their time and energy to realizing this dream; thanks to friends who supported us in times of crisis; thanks to customers and partners who trusted us, collaborated with us, and relied on our technology for success; and thanks to those in my life who have shown care towards me.

Following that, we came together in a more cohesive and positive way to re-engage with our work. I am incredibly proud of the focus we have shown since then. We have accomplished some of the most outstanding research work in OpenAI's history. Our weekly active users have grown from approximately 100 million to over 300 million. Most importantly, we have continued to introduce technologies to the world that people truly love and that can address real-world problems.

Nine years ago, we had no clue what we would ultimately become. Even today, we only have a vague understanding of the future. The evolution of AI has been filled with ups and downs, and we anticipate more challenges and opportunities in the future.

Among these changes, some have been delightful, while others have posed challenges. Ongoing research breakthroughs have been exhilarating, and many former skeptics have now become staunch supporters. Of course, we have also witnessed some colleagues choose to leave and become our competitors. With the continuous expansion of the team, personnel turnover is inevitable, with OpenAI's growth rate being particularly astonishing. Startups typically experience turnover with each scale-up, but at OpenAI, this change occurs almost on a monthly basis. The changes of the past two years are equivalent to a decade of development in a regular company. When a leading company in an industry grows at such a rapid pace, inevitably, team members' goals and priorities diverge. At the same time, as a front-runner in the industry, we have unavoidably become the subject of various criticisms and attacks, especially under pressure from competitors.

Our vision has never wavered, but our strategy will continue to adjust and evolve over time. For example, initially, we never thought we would need to establish a product company; we believed we only needed to focus on conducting excellent research. Similarly, we did not anticipate needing such a vast amount of funding to support our work. Now, we need to build many things that we could not have imagined just a few years ago. And in the future, there will undoubtedly be more new challenges awaiting us that we currently find hard to foresee.

We are proud of the achievements we have made so far in research and technology applications and are committed to continuing our in-depth exploration of safety and benefit sharing. We have always believed that the best way to make AI systems safe is by gradually and rhythmically introducing them to the world, giving society enough time to adapt and evolve alongside the technology. Continuously learn from practical applications and improve the security of the technology. We understand deeply that becoming a global leader in safety and alignment research is crucial, and this research needs to be guided by real-world feedback.

Today, we are confident that we have mastered the traditional approach to building AGI. We believe that by 2025, we may see the first batch of AI Agents "entering the workforce" and significantly boosting enterprise productivity. This will be a historic moment. We still believe that gradually placing exceptional tools in people's hands is the best way to achieve broad and profound impact.

We have already begun to shift our focus to a grander objective, which is the pursuit of true superintelligence. While we are passionate about our existing products, our mission is to strive for that brighter future. With superintelligence, we will be able to achieve all imaginable goals. Superintelligent tools will greatly accelerate scientific discoveries and technological innovations, helping us solve complex problems that are beyond human capacity alone, thus significantly enhancing societal well-being and prosperity.

Now, all of this may sound like science fiction, and even discussing it may seem a bit crazy. But that's okay—we have faced similar situations before, and embracing such a challenge once again fills us with excitement. We are very confident that in the coming years, everyone will see the same prospects we see and realize how essential it is to maintain a high degree of caution while maximizing universal benefits and empowerment. Given the potential and possibilities of our work, OpenAI is destined to be no ordinary company.

I feel both fortunate and deeply honored to be able to participate in this endeavor.

(Thanks to Josh Tyrangiel for inspiring me. I really wish we could have had more time to interact.)

During those days, many people contributed greatly to OpenAI and myself, but two individuals' performances stood out.

The assistance of Ron Conway and Brian Chesky far exceeded the requirements of their roles to the point where I don't even know how to express my gratitude. I had long heard about Ron's capabilities and relentless spirit, and over the past few years, I have received countless help and advice from Brian.

However, it is only when standing shoulder to shoulder with someone in a true crisis that you can truly see their extraordinary abilities. I can say without exaggeration that without their help, OpenAI might have collapsed. They worked around the clock for several days until the issue was completely resolved.

Despite their intense workload, they always remained calm, demonstrating clear strategic thinking and providing invaluable advice. They prevented me from making several mistakes, and they made none themselves. Leveraging their extensive networks, they met all needs and successfully dealt with many complex situations. I am certain they also did many things of which I am unaware.

Yet, what moved me the most was their care, compassion, and support.

I thought I knew how to support a founder and a company, to some extent, I did. But I had never seen, nor even heard of support like theirs. Now I finally understand why they have such legendary reputations. They truly are exceptional and fully deserve such acclaim. They both possess extraordinary abilities to overcome obstacles and provide assistance in critical moments, demonstrating unwavering commitment. Our tech industry is better because of them.

Of course, there are others like them. This is something special about the tech industry that is more important than people realize, and it is what keeps the whole industry running smoothly. I look forward to carrying on this spirit.

On a more personal note, I want to especially thank Ollie for his support during that weekend and beyond. He is unmatched in every way and no one could ask for a better partner.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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