Projected Decrease of 28.4 Trillion Won in Government Bond Net Increase if Total Expenditure is Below 820 Trillion Won in 2027

If the total expenditure for 2027 is set below 820 trillion won, it is analyzed that the net increase in government bonds next year will decrease by more than 28.4 trillion won compared to this year. Korea Investment & Securities stated in its bond strategy report on the 19th that the total expenditure scale of the 2027 budget and the issuance limit of government bonds are key variables in the bond market. Assuming next year's total expenditure is 810 trillion won, the total issuance of government bonds is estimated at 207.4 trillion won, while a total expenditure of 820 trillion won would result in 217.4 trillion won, and 830 trillion won would lead to 227.4 trillion won. This year's total issuance of government bonds is 225.7 trillion won, indicating that if total expenditure is below 820 trillion won, next year's total issuance will decrease. The net increase is estimated to be 71 trillion won, 81 trillion won, and 91 trillion won for total expenditures of 810 trillion won, 820 trillion won, and 830 trillion won, respectively, showing a decrease of 38.4 trillion won, 28.4 trillion won, and 18.4 trillion won compared to this year's net increase of 109.4 trillion won. With a favorable tax revenue outlook, the deficit is expected to shrink next year, and the decrease in the net increase of government bonds could alleviate supply and demand instability issues. Next year's national tax revenue is expected to exceed 500 trillion won, and improvements in the semiconductor industry are likely to have a positive impact on tax revenue forecasts.