M&G Investments is betting on a rally in South Korean government bonds, anticipating that the Bank of Korea (BOK) will slow its rate hike cycle despite expectations of further tightening among investors. M&G, a London-based global asset manager managing over 300 billion pounds, noted that the BOK raised its benchmark rate to 2.75% in July, its first hike since early 2023, driven by stronger growth and inflation data. South Korea's economy grew 0.6% in Q2, with consumer prices rising 2.8% in July, above the BOK's 2% target. Outgoing deputy governor Ryoo Sangdai indicated that further hikes are likely, emphasizing inflation trends over recent currency stabilization. M&G's head of Asia fixed income, Low Guan Yi, believes the market has overestimated future rate hikes, citing a semiconductor-driven tax windfall that could reduce bond issuance. M&G has increased its Korean government bond holdings in the past two months, betting on tighter supply mitigating the central bank's hawkish stance. This comes as foreign investors have pulled back, with net foreign selling of Korean government bonds reaching approximately 1.2 billion dollars in July, the highest since February 2025, causing a 22 basis point rise in the 10-year yield since June. The outcome of M&G's strategy will depend on the BOK's decision on August 27, where a slower pace of hikes could validate their bond bet.
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