Dollar: BCRA Accelerated Purchases, Exceeding $2 Billion in July

The Central Bank (BCRA) accelerated its purchases in the official foreign exchange market again on Thursday, July 30, adding $117 million, its largest acquisition of the week. This way, the monetary authority has recorded its second buying session after interrupting a streak of 135 consecutive days with a positive balance on Tuesday.

The intervention occurred on a day with higher volume compared to the previous day. A total of $537 million was traded in the spot segment, and the BCRA absorbed nearly 22% of that amount, which could indicate a bulk purchase. Thus, the buying balance for July rose to $2.116 billion, while the accumulated purchases in 2026 reached $13.281 billion.

This data presents a dual perspective. On one hand, July has already established itself as one of the strongest months of the year for foreign currency accumulation, with an average daily of $106 million, above the $68 million of June, although below the $137 million of May. On the other hand, the last week showed a marked slowdown, as the accumulated balance since Monday reached only $180 million.

Despite the official purchases, gross international reserves fell by $199 million, ending at $49.001 billion. Thus, the stock remained just above the threshold of $49 billion, following the rebound from the previous session.

The decline occurred even with a positive contribution from asset valuation. Gold rose by 1.88% and would have added about $130 million to the book value of the Central Bank's holdings. Additionally, the euro increased by 0.57% against the dollar, the pound gained 0.90%, the yuan appreciated by 0.16%, and the yen surged by 2.40%, marking its largest increase since 2022.

In the foreign exchange front, the wholesale dollar fell by 0.53% and closed at $1,488 for sale. The drop widened the distance against the ceiling of the band, which remains at $1,814.21, to 20%.

The fall of the official dollar was also reflected in financial quotes. The MEP fell by 1% to $1,508.43, while the cash with settlement dropped by 2.10% to $1,552.41. Meanwhile, the blue dollar decreased by 0.53% and closed at $1,565. With these values, the gap between the blue and the wholesale dollar stood at 5.17%, while the exchange fell to 2.92%.

The movement occurred after a previous session in which the market had shown lower demand for coverage. In this context, the normalization of the dollar-linked segment also helped to ease the pressures that had appeared around the fixing of the D31L6, the bond tied to the exchange rate that expires this Friday.

In futures, the curve operated with widespread declines. July fell by 0.50%, August decreased by 0.56%, September lost 0.49%, and December dropped by 0.46%. Additionally, the 2027 contracts also showed declines in almost all terms, with a general negative variation of 0.46%.

With these movements, the implied rate for July remained at 0%, while that for August stood at 1.50% monthly, equivalent to 18.01% annualized. In pesos, the TAMAR fell from 22.88% to 22.38%, while the BADLAR decreased from 22% to 21.25%.

The market indicated that, after the strong volume traded in the D31G6, the dollar-linked bond for August, activity in that instrument significantly reduced. The volume dropped from over $400 million to about $65 million, a level more consistent with a lower official presence in the secondary market.

Moreover, open interest in dollar futures increased by only $37.6 million, which also indicated a more limited demand for coverage. In this sense, part of the market interpreted that the search for exchange protection shifted towards the Treasury auction, where dual instruments concentrated greater attention.

Thus, the session left a partial relief on the foreign exchange front. The BCRA accelerated purchases, the wholesale dollar fell again, and futures declined across all terms. However, the drop in reserves showed that the accumulation of foreign currency still coexists with factors that limit the Central Bank's balance sheet recovery.

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