Bond traders bet that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike exceeds 50%

According to Jinshi News, bond traders are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve's next policy move may be an interest rate hike rather than a cut. Swap contracts linked to central bank rate decisions indicate that the market expects a probability of over 50% for the Fed to raise rates before cutting them, prior to April next year. Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at LPL Financial, stated that the possibility of a rate cut this year still exists, but as the duration of the Iran conflict extends, this possibility will gradually decrease.

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