Bitcoin Under Pressure: Why September 16 Worries Investors

September 16 is shaping up to be a high-risk date for Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and financial markets as a whole. On that day, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The day before, a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is also set to take place in the U.S. Senate. Adding to these two events is the increasing pressure from Donald Trump on the Fed, with the threat of suspending certain trade if the central bank refuses to lower rates.

Markets are now preparing for a scenario they deemed unlikely just a few weeks ago: a new increase in U.S. rates.

The August employment report has reinforced this hypothesis. The U.S. economy created 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the approximately 55,000 expected by economists, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%. As a result, the probability of a 25 basis point increase at the FOMC meeting on September 16 rose from about 49.4% to 60.4% in 24 hours, according to CME FedWatch.

An increase in rates could support the dollar and push U.S. Treasury yields higher, two movements generally unfavorable to riskier assets like tech stocks and Bitcoin.

Trump's ultimatum adds a geopolitical layer.

On his Truth Social network, Donald Trump posted an unequivocal message: "LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT."

In other words, if Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh does not lower rates, the president threatens to suspend trade with all countries where the U.S. has a deficit.

The list is impressive: Mexico, China, Taiwan, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India. In 2025, the U.S. trade deficit in goods reached $1.24 trillion. According to The Kobeissi Letter, this could potentially suspend over $300 billion in monthly trade volume.

Trump justifies this threat by citing a Supreme Court decision that would give him an "absolute right" to act. In reality, the ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump has rather restricted presidential power regarding trade under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Additionally, there is a specific issue for the crypto sector. The U.S. Congress is set to hold a crucial procedural vote on the CLARITY Act around the same date. This legislation aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC regarding digital assets.

A blockage or postponement of the bill could undermine institutional confidence and trigger capital outflows from Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs. Conversely, a clear advancement would reassure traditional players who remain cautious in the face of U.S. regulatory uncertainty.

Kevin Warsh, appointed by Trump himself, recently emphasized in Jackson Hole the need to control inflation rather than ease monetary policy.

Thus, September 16 concentrates three potentially bearish catalysts: a hawkish monetary decision, a political escalation between the White House and the Fed, and a high-risk legislative vote for the crypto industry. French investors exposed to cryptocurrencies and U.S. stock markets have every interest in monitoring this date.

However, some analysts suggest a "sell the rumor, buy the news" scenario. If the Fed accompanies a rate hike with a message signaling the end of the tightening cycle, a quick rebound remains possible once the initial shock is digested.

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