Bitcoin Purchase Probability Increases by 2.5% Points: Analysis of Information Impact
Recent research has revealed that the probability of U.S. households purchasing cryptocurrency has increased by approximately 2.5 percentage points after being exposed to historical return information about Bitcoin (BTC). The Cleveland Federal Reserve published a working paper on July 14, analyzing data from a large-scale U.S. household survey and experimental surveys, indicating that the differences in expected returns and risk perception have a greater impact on cryptocurrency ownership than demographic factors. About 40% of non-owners responded that they have a low understanding of cryptocurrency, and in a survey from the third quarter of 2021, 87% of non-owners could not predict Bitcoin's returns over the next 12 months. Approximately 63% of non-owner respondents perceived Bitcoin as the highest risk, while about 45% of owners shared the same view. The expected return also varied by ownership status; as of the third quarter of 2021, the average one-year expected return for Bitcoin owners was 22%, compared to 7% for non-owners. The group that received information about Bitcoin's returns over the past 12 months increased their target allocation to cryptocurrency by about 2 percentage points, and subsequently, their probability of purchasing cryptocurrency rose by approximately 2.5 percentage points. The researchers interpreted that historical return information raises expected returns, which in turn leads to actual purchases. Cryptocurrency usage in the U.S. is still not widespread, with a report on household economics in 2025 indicating that only 9% of adults hold cryptocurrency for investment purposes.
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